Cempaka Business and Economy: How Indonesia Can Compete with China in Trade

"A Summary" – Apr 2, 2011 (Kryon channelled by Lee Carroll) (Subjects: Religion, Shift of Human Consciousness, 2012, Intelligent/Benevolent Design, EU, South America, 5 Currencies, Water Cycle (Heat up, Mini Ice Ace, Oceans, Fish, Earthquakes ..), Middle East, Internet, Israel, Dictators, Palestine, US, Japan (Quake/Tsunami Disasters , People, Society ...), Nuclear Power Revealed, Hydro Power, Geothermal Power, Moon, Financial Institutes (Recession, Realign integrity values ..) , China, North Korea, Global Unity,..... etc.) - (Text version)

"The Timing of the Great Shift" – Mar 21, 2009 (Kryon channelled by Lee Carroll) - (Text version)

“ … Here is another one. A change in what Human nature will allow for government. "Careful, Kryon, don't talk about politics. You'll get in trouble." I won't get in trouble. I'm going to tell you to watch for leadership that cares about you. "You mean politics is going to change?" It already has. It's beginning. Watch for it. You're going to see a total phase-out of old energy dictatorships eventually. The potential is that you're going to see that before 2013.
They're going to fall over, you know, because the energy of the population will not sustain an old energy leader ..."

"Update on Current Events" – Jul 23, 2011 (Kryon channelled by Lee Carroll) - (Subjects: The Humanization of God, Gaia, Shift of Human Consciousness, 2012, Benevolent Design, Financial Institutes (Recession, System to Change ...), Water Cycle (Heat up, Mini Ice Ace, Oceans, Fish, Earthquakes ..), Nuclear Power Revealed, Geothermal Power, Hydro Power, Drinking Water from Seawater, No need for Oil as Much, Middle East in Peace, Persia/Iran Uprising, Muhammad, Israel, DNA, Two Dictators to fall soon, Africa, China, (Old) Souls, Species to go, Whales to Humans, Global Unity,..... etc.)

"The Recalibration of Awareness – Apr 20/21, 2012 (Kryon channeled by Lee Carroll) (Subjects: Old Energy, Recalibration Lectures, God / Creator, Religions/Spiritual systems (Catholic Church, Priests/Nun’s, Worship, John Paul Pope, Women in the Church otherwise church will go, Current Pope won’t do it), Middle East, Jews, Governments will change (Internet, Media, Democracies, Dictators, North Korea, Nations voted at once), Integrity (Businesses, Tobacco Companies, Bankers/ Financial Institutes, Pharmaceutical company to collapse), Illuminati (Started in Greece, with Shipping, Financial markets, Stock markets, Pharmaceutical money (fund to build Africa, to develop)), Shift of Human Consciousness, (Old) Souls, Women, Masters to/already come back, Global Unity.... etc.) - (Text version)

“… The Shift in Human Nature

You're starting to see integrity change. Awareness recalibrates integrity, and the Human Being who would sit there and take advantage of another Human Being in an old energy would never do it in a new energy. The reason? It will become intuitive, so this is a shift in Human Nature as well, for in the past you have assumed that people take advantage of people first and integrity comes later. That's just ordinary Human nature.

In the past, Human nature expressed within governments worked like this: If you were stronger than the other one, you simply conquered them. If you were strong, it was an invitation to conquer. If you were weak, it was an invitation to be conquered. No one even thought about it. It was the way of things. The bigger you could have your armies, the better they would do when you sent them out to conquer. That's not how you think today. Did you notice?

Any country that thinks this way today will not survive, for humanity has discovered that the world goes far better by putting things together instead of tearing them apart. The new energy puts the weak and strong together in ways that make sense and that have integrity. Take a look at what happened to some of the businesses in this great land (USA). Up to 30 years ago, when you started realizing some of them didn't have integrity, you eliminated them. What happened to the tobacco companies when you realized they were knowingly addicting your children? Today, they still sell their products to less-aware countries, but that will also change.

What did you do a few years ago when you realized that your bankers were actually selling you homes that they knew you couldn't pay for later? They were walking away, smiling greedily, not thinking about the heartbreak that was to follow when a life's dream would be lost. Dear American, you are in a recession. However, this is like when you prune a tree and cut back the branches. When the tree grows back, you've got control and the branches will grow bigger and stronger than they were before, without the greed factor. Then, if you don't like the way it grows back, you'll prune it again! I tell you this because awareness is now in control of big money. It's right before your eyes, what you're doing. But fear often rules. …”

Monday, December 21, 2009

How Indonesia Can Compete with China in Trade

ASEAN-China FTA and Deindustrialization

Illustration for textile industry. Even before FTA, Chinese garment products dominate the Indonesian market. Imagine how it will be with the FTA. The Indonesian textile businesses are volatile. (Kompas/Riza Fathoni)

Kompas, by Faisal Basri, Monday, 21 December 2009 | 9:47 AM

KOMPAS.com - In 2008 the Indonesian commerce with China suddenly took a sudden reverse into a plunge, resulting in a USD 3.6 billion deficit for Indonesia, while Indonesia still had a surplus of USD 1.1 billion in the previous year.

Even more shocking was that the Indonesian non-gas and oil trade deficit rocketted from USD 1.3 billion in 2007 to USD 9.2 billion in 2008, which was a 600 percent leap. Between January to October 2009 the deficit has reached USD 3.9 billion.

The deficit leap in Indonesia's commerce with China in 2008 was because before 2008 the import data hadn't included goods that came from bonded zones. This means that actually the deficit in the trade with China has begun long time before 2008.

However, with whatever method of calculation, it's definite that the Indonesia-China trade has shown a deteriorating trend in the recent years. Goods from China outpour the Indonesian market.

Now China is Indonesia's main import source, which amounts to 17.2 percent of the total non gas and oil import. On the contrary, China only absorbs 8.7 percent of the total Indonesian non-oil and gas export. This means that the Chinese goods are penetrating our market far more agressively than the other way around.

All the while, the structure of the traded goods tends to be asymmetrical. Primary comodities dominate the export from Indonesia to China, while the import from China to Indonesia are dominated by diverse manufacture products. Consequently our manufacturing industry is heavily threatened.

So far, some of our manufacture products have been left behind to cope with the competition from Chinese merchandises. It seems that our defense is weak in all lines.

No wonder our manufacturing industry is suffering. It's very probable that the early deindustrialization symptoms in the last few years are only exacerbated by the flood of Chinese manufacture products.

"Ignorance" weakens our position further. We feed our 'opponent' with more ammo by supplying mining and energy commodities along with other primary ones; while our own industry is screaming for help due to the lack of energy and raw materials.

It's hard to imagine our products competing head to head with China's unless we can fully utilize our advantage of natural resources, especially those not possessed by China. Therefore we can no longer have our raw resources on sale.

Penetration of Chinese goods

The industries that process domestic raw materials must be supported all out. The centers of industry must be reorganized to be integrated with raw material resources. The technological developments must also be focused that way. In short, we must throw everything we've got.

Complaining and regretting won't change our luck. We have sufficient capital to perform effective maneuvers and strategies.

Begging for postponement on the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is possible, but it shouldn't postpone the homework that we've left long over-due.

Wouldn't a postponement have only marginal effect anyway, since the import duty to Indonesia has been below 10 percent for years.

Even if the penetration of Chinese goods could be tackled with a postponement, similar goods would come from other ASEAN countries because the ASEAN FTA is getting closer.

The trade volume among ASEAN countries in 2008 has reached almost USD half trillion. The developed countries are approaching ASEAN. ASEAN trade with Japan, the European Union, China, and America is almost up to 800 billion USD. If combined with the trade with Korea, India, Australia, and New Zealand the number has passed USD 1 trillion.

The rational option is to integrate our economy with the regional dynamics. Asia is proven to be the most dynamic region in the world and has been the spine of the world's economy.

We have a better chance to advance faster if we become part of a regional production network instead of staying away because of our lack of self esteem.

Of course, the way we integrate can't be like Singapore's or Malaysia's. The reason is, we have a relatively large potential for domestic market with our unique geographical condition and our potential on diverse natural resources too. Both can only be put to use realistically if we truly integrate our domestic economy. We have long abandoned this cause. (Faisal Basri, Economic Expert)

Editor: jimbon / Source : Kompas Cetak

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Monday, December 21, 2009

How Indonesia Can Compete with China in Trade

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