Cempaka Business and Economy: ASEAN-China free trade deal: Let’s face the music

"A Summary" – Apr 2, 2011 (Kryon channelled by Lee Carroll) (Subjects: Religion, Shift of Human Consciousness, 2012, Intelligent/Benevolent Design, EU, South America, 5 Currencies, Water Cycle (Heat up, Mini Ice Ace, Oceans, Fish, Earthquakes ..), Middle East, Internet, Israel, Dictators, Palestine, US, Japan (Quake/Tsunami Disasters , People, Society ...), Nuclear Power Revealed, Hydro Power, Geothermal Power, Moon, Financial Institutes (Recession, Realign integrity values ..) , China, North Korea, Global Unity,..... etc.) - (Text version)

"The Timing of the Great Shift" – Mar 21, 2009 (Kryon channelled by Lee Carroll) - (Text version)

“ … Here is another one. A change in what Human nature will allow for government. "Careful, Kryon, don't talk about politics. You'll get in trouble." I won't get in trouble. I'm going to tell you to watch for leadership that cares about you. "You mean politics is going to change?" It already has. It's beginning. Watch for it. You're going to see a total phase-out of old energy dictatorships eventually. The potential is that you're going to see that before 2013.
They're going to fall over, you know, because the energy of the population will not sustain an old energy leader ..."

"Update on Current Events" – Jul 23, 2011 (Kryon channelled by Lee Carroll) - (Subjects: The Humanization of God, Gaia, Shift of Human Consciousness, 2012, Benevolent Design, Financial Institutes (Recession, System to Change ...), Water Cycle (Heat up, Mini Ice Ace, Oceans, Fish, Earthquakes ..), Nuclear Power Revealed, Geothermal Power, Hydro Power, Drinking Water from Seawater, No need for Oil as Much, Middle East in Peace, Persia/Iran Uprising, Muhammad, Israel, DNA, Two Dictators to fall soon, Africa, China, (Old) Souls, Species to go, Whales to Humans, Global Unity,..... etc.)

"The Recalibration of Awareness – Apr 20/21, 2012 (Kryon channeled by Lee Carroll) (Subjects: Old Energy, Recalibration Lectures, God / Creator, Religions/Spiritual systems (Catholic Church, Priests/Nun’s, Worship, John Paul Pope, Women in the Church otherwise church will go, Current Pope won’t do it), Middle East, Jews, Governments will change (Internet, Media, Democracies, Dictators, North Korea, Nations voted at once), Integrity (Businesses, Tobacco Companies, Bankers/ Financial Institutes, Pharmaceutical company to collapse), Illuminati (Started in Greece, with Shipping, Financial markets, Stock markets, Pharmaceutical money (fund to build Africa, to develop)), Shift of Human Consciousness, (Old) Souls, Women, Masters to/already come back, Global Unity.... etc.) - (Text version)

“… The Shift in Human Nature

You're starting to see integrity change. Awareness recalibrates integrity, and the Human Being who would sit there and take advantage of another Human Being in an old energy would never do it in a new energy. The reason? It will become intuitive, so this is a shift in Human Nature as well, for in the past you have assumed that people take advantage of people first and integrity comes later. That's just ordinary Human nature.

In the past, Human nature expressed within governments worked like this: If you were stronger than the other one, you simply conquered them. If you were strong, it was an invitation to conquer. If you were weak, it was an invitation to be conquered. No one even thought about it. It was the way of things. The bigger you could have your armies, the better they would do when you sent them out to conquer. That's not how you think today. Did you notice?

Any country that thinks this way today will not survive, for humanity has discovered that the world goes far better by putting things together instead of tearing them apart. The new energy puts the weak and strong together in ways that make sense and that have integrity. Take a look at what happened to some of the businesses in this great land (USA). Up to 30 years ago, when you started realizing some of them didn't have integrity, you eliminated them. What happened to the tobacco companies when you realized they were knowingly addicting your children? Today, they still sell their products to less-aware countries, but that will also change.

What did you do a few years ago when you realized that your bankers were actually selling you homes that they knew you couldn't pay for later? They were walking away, smiling greedily, not thinking about the heartbreak that was to follow when a life's dream would be lost. Dear American, you are in a recession. However, this is like when you prune a tree and cut back the branches. When the tree grows back, you've got control and the branches will grow bigger and stronger than they were before, without the greed factor. Then, if you don't like the way it grows back, you'll prune it again! I tell you this because awareness is now in control of big money. It's right before your eyes, what you're doing. But fear often rules. …”

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

ASEAN-China free trade deal: Let’s face the music

The Jakarta Post, Andry Asmoro, Analyst | Wed, 12/23/2009 9:34 AM

In the last few months, domestic business players, industry associations, policy makers and analysts are “suddenly” discussing the potential threat from the zero percent tariff implementation on China’s products under the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) scheme, effective starting Jan. 1, 2010.

Most people would concur the implementation of ACFTA would adversely impact Indonesia’s manufacturing and trade performance.

That 14 industries are asking for a delayed implementation of ACFTA proves this. These include textiles, steel, tires, furniture, cocoa processing, medical equipment, cosmetics, aluminium, electronics, downstream petrochemicals, flat glass, shoes, machine-tools and automotive goods.

Most Indonesians would agree the country needs more time to compete with China’s products and that delaying implementation of free trade would be a good thing.

But, we believe that no matter when the free trade deal is implemented, the result would be the same: Indonesia’s industries would not be ready. It is high time Indonesian companies face the music for being poorly prepared, instead of keeping up the past practice of hiding behind government protection.

China-ASEAN relations started up in 1990 when Qia Qichen, China’s Foreign Minister, attended the opening session of the 24th ASEAN Ministerial Meeting in Kuala Lumpur and expressed China’s interest in cooperating with ASEAN.

In November 2000, China proposed a free trade area with the 10 ASEAN states. In 2002, ASEAN members and China announced the Framework Agreement for ASEAN-China economic cooperation.

The schedule for the tariff cuts for ASEAN 6 countries (i.e. Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines and Brunei) began in 2003 with 60 percent out of 8,626 tariff posts falling to 0 percent. In 2007, 80 percent of total tariff posts fell to 0 percent while in 2010, 100 percent of the total 8,626 tariff posts must be cut to 0 percent.

Indonesia had 7-10 years to prepare its industries to implement ACFTA and is not the only country with a trade deficit with China. So Thailand has one too. Of the ASEAN 4 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand), only Singapore and Malaysia have managed trade surpluses with China this year.

The three biggest commodity exports to China have been Mineral Fuels, Oils & Products, Animal or Vegetable Fats and Oils and Machinery or Electrical Equipment (ME).

Mineral fuels and vegetable oils contributed 51.2 percent of China’s total imports from Indonesia. The country is not competitive when it comes to textile products and footwear which only contributed 1.6 percent of its exports to China.

On the flip side, China’s exports to Indonesia have been dominated by Machinery, Electrical Equipment, Base Metals and Articles and Textiles and Textile Articles. These contributed more than 60 percent of China’s exports to Indonesia.

China’s exports to Indonesia are mostly manufacturing products while China’s imports from Indonesia are minerals or natural resources.

From this, we conclude that Indonesia’s domestic industry would suffer from the implementation of ACFTA. But would a delay help?

We believe not. Even with a delay, various Indonesian industries would face the same problems, particularly given that some products from China are state-subsidized.

Based on a World Economic Forum (WEF) report, Indonesia’s Global Competitiveness Index was ranked 55 in 2008-2009, the lowest among its ASEAN peers (i.e. Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand).

To counter this, Indonesia needs to make structural changes impacting upon the country’s manufacturing sectors. These include dealing with mark-ups and inefficiencies, which result in lack of competitiveness for Indonesian products.

From the government side, we also need to see support for the manufacturing sector in the form of infrastructure development such as roads and electricity in order to promote efficiency.

According to the Ministry of Public Works, Indonesia’s total funding requirement for infrastructure development in 2010-14 would amount to Rp 400 trillion, of which 50 percent will be allocated for road development.

Nevertheless, project implementation remains challenging due to lack of government supporting regulations and weak horizontal inter-departmental and vertical coordination.

With such deep-rooted problems facing Indonesian industries, there will be no short-term panacea (read: a delay would not help).

The sooner we face the music and compete against other ASEAN countries and China, the faster competitiveness for Indonesian companies will emerge. It’s time to play catch-up with Malaysia and Singapore. Only through short-term hardships will we pave the way for Indonesia’s improved trade performance in the longer run.

The writer is an economist at PT Bahana Securities

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Wednesday, December 23, 2009

ASEAN-China free trade deal: Let’s face the music

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