"A Summary" – Apr 2, 2011 (Kryon channelled by Lee Carroll) (Subjects: Religion, Shift of Human Consciousness, 2012, Intelligent/Benevolent Design, EU, South America, 5 Currencies, Water Cycle (Heat up, Mini Ice Ace, Oceans, Fish, Earthquakes ..), Middle East, Internet, Israel, Dictators, Palestine, US, Japan (Quake/Tsunami Disasters , People, Society ...), Nuclear Power Revealed, Hydro Power, Geothermal Power, Moon, Financial Institutes (Recession, Realign integrity values ..) , China, North Korea, Global Unity,..... etc.) -

“ … Here is another one. A change in what Human nature will allow for government. "Careful, Kryon, don't talk about politics. You'll get in trouble." I won't get in trouble. I'm going to tell you to watch for leadership that cares about you. "You mean politics is going to change?" It already has. It's beginning. Watch for it. You're going to see a total phase-out of old energy dictatorships eventually. The potential is that you're going to see that before 2013.

They're going to fall over, you know, because the energy of the population will not sustain an old energy leader ..."
"Update on Current Events" – Jul 23, 2011 (Kryon channelled by Lee Carroll) - (Subjects: The Humanization of God, Gaia, Shift of Human Consciousness, 2012, Benevolent Design, Financial Institutes (Recession, System to Change ...), Water Cycle (Heat up, Mini Ice Ace, Oceans, Fish, Earthquakes ..), Nuclear Power Revealed, Geothermal Power, Hydro Power, Drinking Water from Seawater, No need for Oil as Much, Middle East in Peace, Persia/Iran Uprising, Muhammad, Israel, DNA, Two Dictators to fall soon, Africa, China, (Old) Souls, Species to go, Whales to Humans, Global Unity,..... etc.)
(Subjects: Who/What is Kryon ?, Egypt Uprising, Iran/Persia Uprising, Peace in Middle East without Israel actively involved, Muhammad, "Conceptual" Youth Revolution, "Conceptual" Managed Business, Internet, Social Media, News Media, Google, Bankers, Global Unity,..... etc.)

The headquarters of the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) in 
Jakarta. (BeritaSatu Photo)
"The Recalibration of Awareness – Apr 20/21, 2012 (Kryon channeled by Lee Carroll) (Subjects: Old Energy, Recalibration Lectures, God / Creator, Religions/Spiritual systems (Catholic Church, Priests/Nun’s, Worship, John Paul Pope, Women in the Church otherwise church will go, Current Pope won’t do it), Middle East, Jews, Governments will change (Internet, Media, Democracies, Dictators, North Korea, Nations voted at once), Integrity (Businesses, Tobacco Companies, Bankers/ Financial Institutes, Pharmaceutical company to collapse), Illuminati (Started in Greece, with Shipping, Financial markets, Stock markets, Pharmaceutical money (fund to build Africa, to develop)), Shift of Human Consciousness, (Old) Souls, Women, Masters to/already come back, Global Unity.... etc.) - (Text version)

… The Shift in Human Nature

You're starting to see integrity change. Awareness recalibrates integrity, and the Human Being who would sit there and take advantage of another Human Being in an old energy would never do it in a new energy. The reason? It will become intuitive, so this is a shift in Human Nature as well, for in the past you have assumed that people take advantage of people first and integrity comes later. That's just ordinary Human nature.

In the past, Human nature expressed within governments worked like this: If you were stronger than the other one, you simply conquered them. If you were strong, it was an invitation to conquer. If you were weak, it was an invitation to be conquered. No one even thought about it. It was the way of things. The bigger you could have your armies, the better they would do when you sent them out to conquer. That's not how you think today. Did you notice?

Any country that thinks this way today will not survive, for humanity has discovered that the world goes far better by putting things together instead of tearing them apart. The new energy puts the weak and strong together in ways that make sense and that have integrity. Take a look at what happened to some of the businesses in this great land (USA). Up to 30 years ago, when you started realizing some of them didn't have integrity, you eliminated them. What happened to the tobacco companies when you realized they were knowingly addicting your children? Today, they still sell their products to less-aware countries, but that will also change.

What did you do a few years ago when you realized that your bankers were actually selling you homes that they knew you couldn't pay for later? They were walking away, smiling greedily, not thinking about the heartbreak that was to follow when a life's dream would be lost. Dear American, you are in a recession. However, this is like when you prune a tree and cut back the branches. When the tree grows back, you've got control and the branches will grow bigger and stronger than they were before, without the greed factor. Then, if you don't like the way it grows back, you'll prune it again! I tell you this because awareness is now in control of big money. It's right before your eyes, what you're doing. But fear often rules. …

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Indonesia's consumer confidence rises, based entirely on hope

The Jakarta Post, Debnath Guharoy, Consultant | Tue, 02/10/2009 2:40 PM   

The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating shot up almost nine points in the October-December quarter, to a high of 116. Influenced by the reduction in fuel prices consumers clung to hope for better times ahead ignoring reports on the global economy. 

But only 31 percent say "this is a good time to buy major appliances", a key indicator. Faced with rising prices, grocery buyers made some adjustments, some sacrifices. What is the fallout for manufacturers of consumer products? 

Though many product categories are weather-proof essentials, what was the impact on individual brands? A close look at the buyers of a basket of five selected fast moving consumer goods reveals an interesting phenomenon. 

While the population is growing, the number of people buying grocery products has been shrinking. Very slowly, but noticeably. 

The simple conclusion is that the main grocery buyer in the family is tightening controls on grocery purchases, doing more of it herself. 

At the end of December 2008, 79 percent of the population 14 years and older bought shampoo in the "last four weeks"; 41 percent bought detergent, 39 percent instant noodles, 29 percent cooking oil and 28 percent bought condensed milk. 

Each of these everyday essentials lost about 1 percent of all their buyers last year. 

In Indonesia, 1 percent is a lot of people. That loss of buyers would not necessarily mean a decline in the number of users. In fact, evidence for most categories of essentials confirms no major declines in users though the same number may be using each product more frugally. 

But a look beyond the obvious, by focusing on just shampoos for example, makes another revelation crystal clear. 

At a time when the average breadwinner alone is barely able to cover the household's monthly expenses, there is significant down-trading and brand-switching taking place. 

Lifebuoy continues to take a market share from Sunsilk and Clear. Unilever's shampoo market share remains protected, but revenues are not. 

In contrast, Procter & Gamble's premium brand Pantene continues to grow steadily at the top-end of the market, proving that the well-off still have the capacity to maintain favorites. Economy brands Rejoice and Emeron are also holding their own. 

Another established category like condensed milk is slowly losing ground to fresh milk at the top end of the market, though it remains a mulit-purpose dairy product across all homes, from the humble to the affluent. 

With the exception of a premium brand like Anlene, powdered milk is also being affected by fresh milk particularly at the top end. 

Caught in the pincer attack of high fuel and food prices, even the ubiquitous instant noodles lost both buyers and users last year, with Sedaap strengthening its grip in the category overall. 

But cooking oil has always been the main grocery buyer's domain, not the casual runner to the corner store. The number of buyers remain steady, though some down trading and sparing usage will have affected sales volumes for the better part of last year. 

These conclusions are based on Roy Morgan Single Source, a syndicated survey with over 25,000 Indonesians 14 years and older interviewed each year. 

Almost 90 percent of the population is covered, in the top cities, and other urban and rural areas as well. The national database is updated every 90 days. 

What is too often ignored is the fact that at least half the consumers for these product categories are residents of rural Indonesia. 

Almost uniformly, about 20 percent of the consumers are from the top 20 cities, and the rest from other urban centers. It is the grocery buyers from these smaller cities and towns that are most under pressure to make ends meet. 

Yet, boardroom conversations remain too focused on big city lifestyles, ignoring the fact more than one income is essential for the survival of most families, everywhere. 

The family remains the centre of the universe but the tough circumstances within which they exist should not be confused with those of double-income big-city couples, the privileged few. 

Managing a portfolio of brands judiciously, preventing and arresting cannibalization is vital to the company's bottom-line. That's obvious. But the only way to do this early, before too much damage is done, is to continuously take a holistic view of buyer and user behavior. 

By watching cross-category behavior evolve, by monitoring in-category switching, new products or new brands can be clearly positioned, pricing and distribution choices fine-tuned. 

Poring over sales data alone can cause tunnel-vision, injurious to brand health. A narrow focus needs to be set in the context of the bigger picture. Just because one brand is in decline doesn't mean that the category, or the economy, is in trouble. 

The global financial crisis and its shadow looming over the Indonesia's consumer marketplace will remain with us for some time to come. Job losses have only just begun, the toll will rise in the months ahead. The need to remain vigilant will become even more vital. 

Next week, this column will feature an update on the demand for consumer durables. 

The writer can be contacted at Debnath.Guharoy@roymorgan.com

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