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Thursday, October 03, 2013

Indonesia Extends Currency Swap Agreement With China

Jakarta Globe, October 3, 2013

Indonesia’s central bank extended a 100 billion yuan ($15 billion) bilateral currency swap arrangement with People’s Bank of China on Tuesday in an attempt to bolster market confidence in Southeast Asia’s economy.

Bank Indonesia goveror Agus Martowardojo hopes the swap would boost trade and direct investment between Indonesia and China, as well as bolster short-term liquidity to stabilize financial markets.

“The agreement reflects regional commitment in the face of global uncertainty and will contribute propitiously towards maintaining macroeconomic and domestic financial stability,” Agus said in a statement released on Wednesday.

In 2009, Indonesia and China agreed on a three-year 100-billion yuan currency swap to help ease foreign-exchange shortages. Agus said the extension of the swap agreement would build market confidence in Indonesia economic fundamentals.

Bank Indonesia has raised its benchmark interest rate by a total of 1.5 percentage points to 7.25 percent since June, in part to arrest rupiah decline and to keep inflation in check.

Such tighter monetary policy, however, comes with its own downside as it curbs consumer spending in Indonesia, the Asian Development Bank said on Wednesday.

The ADB also released its updated Asian Development Outlook 2013 report on Wednesday, recasting growth estimates below 6 percent for 2013. The Indonesian economy is now expected to grow 5.7 percent in 2013, less than the previous estimate of 6 percent. It is also projected to expand 6 percent in 2014, down from 6.6 percent growth previously, the report read.

First-half growth at 5.9 percent came amid a drop in fixed investment, slowing consumption and increased inflationary pressures following fuel subsidy cuts, ADB reported.

“Policies taken to address inflation and the current account deficit will restrain growth in the near term,” Edimon Ginting, ADB’s deputy country director for Indonesia, said in a statement. “The economy will be [expanding] slower than anticipated.”

Indonesia, once a darling of foreign investors, has been exposed to its external vulnerabilities as its has to cope with deficit in current account while as hot money exited the country in search of safe havens, due to the US Federal Reserve’s expected tapering of quantitative easing measures. The rupiah fell to its lowest rate against the dollar in four-and-a-half years.

The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) reported a trade surplus for August, the first in five months, despite a decline in exports by value. A 10 percent decrease in fuel imports helped shrink the trade gap, but imports across the board — from heavy machinery to automobiles — dropped in August. Inflation slowed to 8.4 percent in September, from 8.8 percent a month earlier, BPS reported.

Inflationary pressures will likely impact consumer spending through the end of 2013, ADB reported. In 2014 spending is expected to rise again as inflation subsides and political parties embark on an election-time spending spree, the bank said.


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