News Analysis: Dream or reality: RI’s role on the world stage in 2025

Meidyatama Suryodiningrat, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta | Wed, 11/26/2008 7:18 AM  

How refreshing to hear someone else — someone other than Indonesia itself, that is analytically touting this country’s potentially important international role in the coming decade.

For once, the wherewithal that makes Indonesia an indolent giant is not being overlooked. 

Indonesia was not the central subject in the U.S. National Intelligence Council’s (NIC) report Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World released Friday. But it featured noticeably as a tier-two up-and-coming power. 

The 99-page report identified key drivers likely to shape world events in the future. It concluded with a picture already taking shape: A multipolar world highlighted by declining U.S. hegemony and Europe as a hobbled giant, while emerging powers China, India and Russia assume a more dominant role. 

The report’s significance for Indonesia was not only that it was referred to about half a dozen times, but also in the way it compared to other countries in this region that currently boast higher levels of economic development. 

Singapore, for example, was fleetingly mentioned in reference to state capitalism, while Malaysia was touched upon as a country whose produc-tion of natural resources has flattened. 

Indonesia, on the other hand, was described as an entity whose political and economic power is expected to increase. 

“Although the rise of no other state can equal the impact of the rise of such populous states as China and India, other countries with potentially high-performing economies — Iran, Indonesia, and Turkey, for example — could play increasingly important roles on the world stage and especially for establishing new patterns in the Muslim world,” the report said. 

Ultimately, size does matter. And size, whether of population or resource wealth, is something that Indonesia has plenty of. 

For a country to have a youthful population maturing into “worker bulges”, especially skilled workers, is an asset almost as advantageous as military might. 

While the NIC report is primarily geared toward American policymakers, it provides valuable insight for Indonesia to position itself in this forecast environment. 

The report acknowledges the rise of Asian regionalism as one of three competing quasi-blocs in the new economy along with North America and Europe. However, the report also notes that internal antagonism “could spur competition among China, India and Japan”. 

Indonesia is, and should continue to be, a force in regional integration. Its focus and resources must be sustained for such efforts. 

There is a clear role to be played as an anchor of stability amid the intra-regional rivalry — a role Indonesia is already playing through ASEAN. But Indonesia can only sustain such efforts as long as it truly “dominates” its own subregional setting. 

This means preponderant leadership and agenda setting without capitulating to second-tier members of ASEAN. 

Competition between the regional clusters further opens up the opportunity for Jakarta to serve as a mediator between them. As the third largest country in the region, Indonesia holds a respected place among its Asian peers. At the same time, as the world’s third largest democracy, it is also a strategic ambassador in the battle of values. 

The report maintains that democratization will advance, although no new wave is expected.

Hence Indonesia’s presence as a stronghold of democracy in a sea of Asian authoritarian capitalist regimes is magnified. 

But potential is only as good as its eventual realization and the report also makes it clear that Indonesia’s performance will depend on whether it can replicate its success at political reform with measures to spur the economy. 

“With abundant natural resources and a large population of potential consumers, Indonesia could rise economically if its elected leaders take steps to improve the investment climate, including strengthening the legal system, improving the regulatory framework, reforming the financial sector, reducing fuel and food subsidies, and generally lowering the cost of doing business.” 

Failure would mean not only that Indonesia will become just one of many, but also that the potential dream could turn into a nightmare. 

As President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono rightly observed over the weekend, the future population could also become a threat if left poor and disenchanted.