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Love: Markets broadly supportive of subsidized fuel price hike — as long as
infrastructure follows
Jakarta Globe, Muhamad Al Azhari & Vanesha Manuturi, Nov 18, 2014
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Financial markets responded to the fuel price increase positively. The benchmark stock index rose 0.96 percent to close at 5,102.47 on Nov. 18, a day after the president Joko Widodo announced the fuel price increase. (Reuters Photo/Beawiharta) |
Jakarta.
Economists and local executives praised President Joko Widodo’s decision to
raise the price of subsidized fuel, a move considered a bold first step toward
further fiscal reform.
Joko raised
the subsidized fuel price by an average 33.6 percent as he eyes plans to shift
subsidy government spending toward productive sectors, such as infrastructure
and education investments.
“This gutsy
policy will allow him to unburden himself from the heavy shackles which held
back previous administrations, because of one simple rule: You need money to do
stuff in life,” said Wellian Wiranto, a Singapore-based economist with OCBC
Bank.
“It will
not escape the market’s attention, too, that this is a man who manages to do
this within less than a month in office, and, crucially, in an environment
where tyglobal oil prices are dropping,” Wellian said.
“Previous
administrations have largely chosen the more convenient path of discussing and
deliberating until their backs are shoved against the wall of incessant global
oil price upticks before they did the inevitable,” he said, referring obliquely
to former President Susilo Bambang
Yudhoyono.
Joko’s move
is slated to save around Rp 120 trillion ($9.8 billion) in the 2015 budget,
which can now be re-allocated to other sectors rather than being burned in
people’s vehicles while they are stuck in traffic jams.
Barclays
Research sent a note to clients on Tuesday that said the fuel price hike could
help Indonesia to help curb the oil deficit and support portfolio inflows.
Singapore-based
economists, including Wai Ho Leong, Barclays’ senior regional economist for Asia
excluding China, contributed to the note.
“We deem
the fuel price hike to be supportive of the rupiah, and in the near-term we
think the rupiah is likely to strengthen,” the note said, adding that their
analysts believe the fuel hike is positive on two fronts.
The note
highlighted that Indonesia’s oil trade deficit has gradually widened in recent
years due to rising domestic fuel consumption.
“While
rapid income growth is probably the main driver [for higher fuel consumption],
artificially depressed prices [in fuel products] have also contributed to
higher consumption.”
“A decisive
move by Joko to raise prices, accompanied by a roadmap for longer-term fuel
subsidy reforms, will be critical in limiting oil consumption and import growth
over the longer-run,” the note said.
Indonesia’s
government has perennially found that demand for subsidized fuel exceeded the
quota set aside.
This year
state oil company Pertamina estimated that the country will be short 1.9
million kiloliters of subsidized fuel, as demand exceeds the annual quota of 46
million kiloliters.
The
Barclays note also said that the price hike helps narrow of Indonesia’s trade
deficit, which traditionally has been driven by broad-based import compression
rather than stronger exports.
Such a
trend — which means that fewer capital goods have been imported, supporting the
local manufacturing sector — has contributed to the slowdown in economic
growth.
“Should
infrastructure spending increase in coming years, as promised by Joko, growth
and capital goods imports could rebound,” the Barclays note said.
Indonesia’s
trade deficit shrank in September after imports slowed.
The Central
Statistics Agency reported a smaller trade deficit of $270 million in September
versus a revised $311 million in August.
In
September, exports grew 3.87 percent, while imports rose 0.23 percent.
That
compares with a 10.6 percent growth in exports and a 13.7 percent expansion of
imports in August.
“Policies
to curb the oil deficit, along with broader measures to encourage exports and
domestic manufacturing, are thus essential in preventing a renewed widening of
the overall trade deficit,” the Barclays note said.
The
Barclays note also said that “the ability of Joko to push through a fuel price
hike shortly after taking office should strengthen investor confidence in his
administration’s resolve to implement crucial but unpopular economic reforms.”
“This
should help sustain foreign portfolio flows into Indonesian markets, providing
support for the rupiah at a time when concerns over current account funding
could rise due to the end of the third round of
quantitative easing and Fed policy normalization,” the Barclays note
said.
Indonesia’s
economy slowed in the third quarter of 2014 to the lowest level in five years,
as weaker exports dragged down economic expansion even as private consumption
remained strong.
Indonesia’s
economy expanded by 5.01 percent in the three months ending September compared with
the same period last year.
That
compares with a 5.12 percent year-on-year expansion in the second quarter.
Financial
markets responded to the Joko’s move positively. The benchmark stock index rose
0.96 percent to close at 5,102.47 on Tuesday.
As many as
6.3 billion shares worth more than Rp 5.3 trillion changed hands on the day.
Foreign
investors, which contributed to 34 percent of the day’s trading, bought Rp
243.7 billion more shares than they sold. Gainers beat losers 192 by 111.
Meanwhile,
the rupiah strengthened to 12,146 per dollar on Tuesday from 12,193 on Monday,
according to data from the central bank. The yields for benchmark 10-year
government bonds declined to 8.0319 percent from 8.0457 percent.
A lower
yield, suggesting that investors take lower risks premiums over the securities,
reflected their confidence over the overall economy.
Sara
Loebis, corporate secretary of United Tractors, the heavy equipment distributor
arm of Astra International, said that the fuel price hike would affect much of
its operations since the company uses industrial fuel. Industrial fuel is
priced more expensively than the subsidized fuel.
“If state
funds from fuel subsidy can be diverted to more productive sectors such as
infrastructure, this would indirectly open up the heavy machinery market.”
Irwanto,
corporate secretary at BW Plantation did not rule out that the expected higher
inflation may trigger the company’s operational costs to soar.
“But that
may only have effects for about for 42 days to 2 months, I think,” he said.
“As long as
the budget is used towards infrastructure development, we support the decision
because it will eventually bring down costs.”
“In
Indonesia, everything is expensive because our infrastructure is lacking,”
Irwanto said.
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