With its
large domestic market, Indonesia is expected to lead economic growth in six
Southeast Asian countries over the next five years despite the slowdown in the
global economy, the OECD says.
The
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) estimates in its
Southeast Asian Economic Outlook that Indonesia’s economic growth will move up
an average of 6.6 percent between 2012 and 2016 from 6.3 percent in 2011 and
6.1 percent in 2010.
Indonesia’s
average GDP during the five-year period will be the highest in the six major
Southeast Asian countries, followed by Malaysia with an average of 6.3 percent,
Vietnam with 5.3 percent, the Philippines with 4.9 percent, Singapore with 4.6
percent and Thailand with 4.5 percent, the organization estimates.
The
organization also estimates that Indonesia’s GDP will grow at 6.3 percent in
2011, also the highest among the six countries followed by Vietnam at 5.9
percent, Singapore at 5.6 percent, Malaysia at 4.6 percent and the Philippines
at 4.5 percent.
“Amid the
global economic crisis, growth for the six Southeast Asian countries will
moderate towards the first quarter of 2012 but remain robust through 2016,”
OECD Development Center director Mario Pezzini told a press conference on
Tuesday in Jakarta after the launching of OECD report on the Southeast Asian
Economic Outlook 2011/2012.
He said
that Indonesia would lead the region’s growth and keep its strong momentum
thanks to its buoyant domestic demand. Underpinned by relatively strong
investment, growth prospects in Malaysia will also remain robust in the medium
term, though slower than the pre-2008 level, the report said. The Philippine
economy also shows resilience owing to domestic demand and workers remittance.
Singapore’s growth rate is expected to moderate to a level below the 2003-07
rate, due largely to weaker global trade flows.
“The
unprecedented scale of floods has added to downside risks to the near-term
prospect of Thailand,” the report said, adding that the near-term growth
prospect of Vietnam would be affected by the tightening of monetary policies.
Meanwhile,
Bank Indonesia’s director for economic and monetary policy research Perry
Warjiyo saw “downside risks” to its 6.5 percent economic growth forecast next
year due to the global economic slowdown. He called for a fiscal stimulus boost
to reduce the impact of the global slowdown.
“At the end
of the day, how big the impact of global downturn is on Indonesia heavily
depends on how much the fiscal stimulus will be,” he said.
The Asian
Development Bank (ADB) and other financial institutions have expressed similar
concerns, citing government spending as the source of growth that needs be
boosted next year to spur the economic growth. (fem)
Esther
Samboh contributed to this story
